Celtics still viewed as favorites, according to one stat model

By Conor Roche

The Celtics are down 0-2 against the Heat, but at least one prognosticator still views them as the favorite to win the Eastern Conference finals.

Following their crushing Game 2 loss on Friday to the Heat, the Celtics hold a 65 percent chance to win the series via ESPN’s Basketball Power Index. Prior to the series, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index viewed the Celtics’ chances of winning the series as a near certainty, giving Boston a 97 percent chance to take down Miami.

Even with the Celtics down 0-2, and the Nuggets holding a commanding 2-0 lead in the Western Conference finals, ESPN Basketball Power Index is still bullish on Boston’s title chances. It gives the Celtics a 46.8 percent chance to win the title, which is 7.6 percent higher than the Nuggets’ chances (39.2 percent) and a whopping 41 percent higher than the Heat’s chances (5.8 percent). It also gives the Lakers an 8.2 percent chance of winning the title.

The Heat are STILL underdogs in the series despite a 2-0 lead 😲

(via ESPN Analytics) pic.twitter.com/HkGGlVq5kS

ESPN’s Basketball Power Index uses a handful of variables before spitting out a final probability. It calculates its own offensive and defensive ratings, with the Celtics holding a league-best 6.5 offensive rating and a 2.3 defensive rating, giving them an 8.9 BPI. The Heat, meanwhile, have a -0.5 offensive rating and a 1.2 defensive rating, giving them a 0.8 BPI.

Those numbers mostly check out from both teams’ regular season stats. The Celtics were second in offensive rating (117.3), second in defensive rating (110.6), and first in net rating (6.7). The Heat, meanwhile, were 25th in offensive rating (112.3), ninth in defensive rating (112.8), and 21st in net rating (-0.5).

Obviously, the Heat’s numbers have improved during the postseason. They have a 116.5 offensive rating, a 111.6 defensive rating, and a 5.0 net rating. The Celtics’ per 100 possessions remain similar, posting a 117.6 offensive rating, a 112.3 defensive rating and a 5.3 net rating.

Offensive and defensive rating systems aren’t the only things that go into ESPN’s Basketball Power index equation, though. It also considers strength of opponent, pace, game location, distance traveled, rest, and preseason expectations, among other things, before using 10,000 simulations to get a final probability.

Analytic and stat models rating the Celtics in high regard in recent years isn’t anything new. FiveThirtyEight viewed the Celtics as one of the title favorites just as they were beginning their midseason turnaround during the 2021-22 season. Once Boston reached the NBA Finals, FiveThirtyEight gave the Celtics an 80 percent chance to beat the Warriors.

FiveThirtyEight doesn’t view the Celtics as favorites to win the Eastern Conference finals anymore, giving them just a 30 percent shot at winning the series. But its system is giving the Celtics at least a 50/50 chance to win each of the remaining games of the series (well, 49 percent to be exact for Games 3 and 4).

That isn’t too far off as to how oddsmakers feel about the rest of the series, either. The Heat became the betting favorites to win the series following Friday’s win, earning -170 odds to take the series while the Celtics have +145 odds to come back from the 0-2 deficit and return to the NBA Finals on DraftKings Sportsbook.

However, the Celtics are three-point favorites for Sunday’s Game 3 on several sportsbooks. It should be noted that they were a 10-point favorite for Friday’s Game 2 though.

So, even though Friday’s Game 2 loss might have felt like a backbreaker to many, stat models and oddsmakers still somehow view the Eastern Conference finals as a near toss-up.

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